Regional conflict disrupts air travel, puts Middle East tourism at risk; 38 million expected to be affected

2026-03-05 - 05:36

The escalating military conflict in the Middle East has cast a deep shadow over the region’s tourism and travel industry, with the outbreak of war causing widespread disruption to air traffic and forcing the cancellation of thousands of flights in the first days of the crisis. A research report by Tourism Economics, a subsidiary of Oxford Economics, revealed that the closure or restriction of airspace across several countries in the region led to the cancellation of more than 5,000 flights within the first two days of the conflict. The disruption left thousands of travelers stranded at airports and created significant delays across global flight schedules. Millions of Tourists at Risk The report forecasts a sharp decline in international tourism to the Middle East in 2026. Visitor arrivals are expected to fall between 11 percent and 27 percent compared with earlier projections, translating into a potential loss of between 23 million and 38 million international tourists. Such a decline would also significantly affect tourism revenues, with spending expected to drop by between $34 billion and $56 billion during the year. Earlier projections had predicted strong growth for the region’s tourism sector in 2026. However, the outbreak of war has dramatically altered those expectations, with analysts now anticipating a steep decline in international travel to the region. Gulf Countries Among the Most Affected Although the main military confrontations are concentrated in Iran and Israel, the report indicates that the Gulf Cooperation Council states may suffer the largest losses in visitor numbers. The Gulf countries depend heavily on air transport and serve as major regional and international tourism hubs. As a result, destinations such as Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait are expected to witness some of the sharpest annual declines in tourist arrivals compared with earlier forecasts. Meanwhile, countries directly affected by the conflict could face even steeper losses. Two Possible Scenarios The study outlines two potential scenarios to assess the economic impact of the conflict. The first and more likely scenario assumes the war could end within one to three weeks, limiting the damage to the tourism sector. The second scenario considers the possibility of the conflict continuing for up to two months, which would lead to far greater losses. If the conflict persists, the number of tourists visiting the region could decline by nearly 27 percent in 2026, resulting in the loss of tens of millions of visitors and a significant drop in tourism revenues. Global Impact on Aviation The consequences are not confined to the Middle East. The region is one of the world’s most important aviation transit hubs, handling around 14 percent of international transfer passenger traffic through its airports. Airspace closures have forced airlines to reroute many flights between Europe and Asia along longer paths, increasing operational costs and fuel consumption. This is expected to place additional pressure on global ticket prices. Oil Prices Add to the Pressure Tensions around the strategic Strait of Hormuz have also pushed oil prices higher, directly affecting jet fuel costs. With airlines facing rising operating expenses and higher ticket prices, travel demand is likely to weaken in the coming months. The report warns that the impact of the crisis could extend well beyond the end of military operations. Lingering concerns over safety and traveler confidence may delay the recovery of the Middle East’s tourism sector even after the conflict subsides.